How has the Euro changed the Foreign Exchange Market?
Economic Policy, Vol. 17(1) (2002), 149-192
with William Killeen and Michael Moore
This paper examines the primary forex statistics for the euro in relationship to the German mark prior to 1999. Contrary to widespread expectations our evidence indicates that the euro lost ground against the US dollar in forex spot trading and in some dimensions does not even match in international transaction role of the German mark. We argue that the euro changed the forex market structure and particularly increased market transparency through currency elimination. The higher market transparency exposes the dealers to higher inventory risk as his inventory imbalances are revealed more easily to other dealers. Dealers in the euro markets recover increased inventory costs through higher spreads, which make the euro a less attractive transaction medium than the German mark. We explore the policy implications for the ECB, for euro outsiders and reflect upon the future of the forex market.